The conversation’s been heating up over the past couple of weeks – who is this year’s NBA MVP? The four top candidates seem to be Russell Westbrook, James Harden, Kawhi Leonard, and LeBron James, and each has their own defining claim to the trophy. Westbrook is putting up the best box score stats of anyone in the modern era. Harden probably has the next-best box score stats but has a better record. Kawhi is the best defensive player of the bunch and his team has the best record of the bunch. LeBron is probably still the “best player in the NBA” if you ask players or coaches. So who will take the crown?
Miami Heat
Why the Knicks Needn’t Fret at their Lottery Misfortune
Tuesday night, Knicks fans across America sighed (or screamed) at the same time, when it was announced their projected-2nd draft pick would actually be 4th – making them the only team in the lottery to actually lose ground. Missing out on the two consensus top-pick big men in Karl-Anthony Towns and Jahlil Okafor is a tough pill to swallow, especially when the Knicks won’t get their first choice of a consolation prize, but there is plenty of reason for looking up in New York this offseason.
Does Tanking Really Work?
Since the race for once-in-a-lifetime prospect Anthony Davis, tanking has been one of the most controversial topics in NBA conversation. The then-Bobcats aggressively lost games to put themselves in position to get the Brow, leading them to the worst winning percentage in the history of the league.
The biggest argument about tanking is usually regarding its morality, and whether a team and its fans should root for failure in order to find long term success. The league is also split on whether tanking is good for the NBA and its franchises, as shown by the failed “anti-tanking” vote that would’ve revolutionized the lottery system. However, for most NBA fans, there is little doubt that tanking is a “smart” plan. But is tanking really smart? Does it often work?
Who has the Best Backcourt in the NBA? Part 1
Recently there has been a lot of talk about which team has the best backcourt in the league. This began with Dion Waiters stating that he and Kyrie Irving own the title. Next, John Wall stepped up and said that he and Bradley Beal gave the Wizards the best backcourt in the league. In preparation for the Corner Three Positional Rankings and the Corner Three Top 100, we decided to tackle the backcourt argument using stats.
The Comprehensive 2014-2015 NBA Preview: Eastern Conference
After an amazing 2013-2014 season, the unbearably long offseason is finally coming to a close. There’s a lot to look forward to this year in the NBA, with superstars on new teams, contenders adding pieces, and more squads than ever with a chance to make noise. Let’s get started with my projected standings for the Eastern Conference, and analysis for the teams in it:
Guide to The Rematch
Parker’s ridiculous game 1 buzzer beater. LeBron’s block on Splitter. Danny Green’s unbelievable shooting run. Ray Allen’s immortal corner three in game 6. The series lasted seven games, but fans were hungry for seven more. A year later, that wish may come to fruition. Through their all-playoff-long dominance, the Heat and Spurs seemed destined to meet again in this year’s Finals. With teams this great, a lot of information is needed to make a well-educated prediction on the series’ winner. Let’s take a look:
Last Round
San Antonio: Won in 6 (TeamRankings’ most likely outcome: win in 7, CornerThree prediction: win in 7)
Miami: Won in 6 (most likely outcome: win in 6, prediction: win in 6)
Both teams were able to end their series relatively early, with Miami in full control the entire series, and San Antonio looking dominant other than their hiccups in games 3 and 4. It was clear that the better team moved on in both conferences.
Key Stats
Overall ranking (TeamRankings): San Antonio 1st, Miami 4th
Last 10 games ranking (TeamRankings): San Antonio 1st, Miami 4th
Shooting efficiency (TeamRankings): San Antonio 2nd offensive, Miami 22nd defensive
Points in the paint per game (TeamRankings): San Antonio 7th offensive, Miami 8th defensive
Effective field goal percentage (TeamRankings): Miami 1st offensive, San Antonio 4th defensive
In terms of overall ranking, Miami is a weaker opponent than San Antonio faced last round in Oklahoma City, but with Miami coasting to the second seed during the regular season, that stat could be a bit skewed… These two teams boast the two best offenses in the league, ranking first and second on the offensive side in both shooting efficiency and effective field goal percentage. The Spurs’ defense, however, looks to be more up to the challenge than is Miami’s… Chris Bosh and co. will have to do their best to shut down the paint against San Antonio’s common two-big lineups, but their ranking defensively in the paint suggests they’ll be up for the challenge.
Starting Lineups
Spurs:
| Pos | Player ▴ | CornerThree WAR ranking | ESPN WAR ranking |
| PG | Tony Parker | 157th | 51st |
| SG | Danny Green | 60th | 63rd |
| SF | Kawhi Leonard | 24th | 66th |
| PF | Tim Duncan | 23rd | 17th |
| C | Tiago Splitter | 187th | 87th |
Heat:
| Pos | Player ▴ | CornerThree WAR ranking | ESPN WAR ranking |
| PG | Mario Chalmers | 101st | 76th |
| SG | Dwyane Wade | 30th | 85th |
| SF | LeBron James | 4th | 1st |
| PF | Rashard Lewis | 231st | 334th |
| C | Chris Bosh | 64th | 22nd |
Matchup Advantages
PG: Spurs (Parker)
SG: No clear favorite
SF: Heat (James)
PF: Spurs (Duncan)
C: Heat (Bosh)
Bench: Spurs
Coach: Spurs (Popovich)
The WAR rankings show the matchup between Parker and Chalmers is closer than conventional wisdom would suggest… Despite Dwyane Wade’s health, his matchup with Danny Green is more of a wash than you may think, with Green’s analytic-friendly ability to spread the floor and allow the offense more operating room, alongside superior defensive ability. Although it might be easy to assume that his proximity to Wade in the WAR rankings is partially because of Wade’s dearth of minutes this season, Green’s RPM (ESPN stat that doesn’t account for total minutes played) is far superior to Wade’s – 22nd to 77th… Though LeBron is the world’s best player, Kawhi Leonard will be able to give him the same headaches he gave Kevin Durant with his combination of length and strength, alongside a scrappy style that can frustrate his matchup. As I’ve brought up before, LeBron has already showed us his feelings on Kawhi Leonard:
… Erik Spoelstra has showed multiple different looks at the power forward position this postseason, from Shane Battier to Udonis Haslem to Lewis. It will be interesting to see if Spo is willing to give up Lewis’ offense in order to have a better shot defensively, or if he elects to hide Lewis on Tiago Splitter and force the Spurs to go to him offensively… Chris Bosh will continue to be one of the league’s true top big men, boasting one of the league’s best mid-range shots (courtesy of NBA.com):
His pick-and-roll defensive ability will invaluable against players like Parker and Ginobili as well, and as I recently suggested, he may be called upon to guard Tim Duncan in the post as well. Bosh is of huge importance on both ends of the court in this matchup… The Heat have a solid bench, especially when Ray Allen is hot, but the Spurs can come from all angles, with Ginobili looking to erase his dreadful performance in last years’ Finals, and Boris Diaw becoming a huge contributor for the Spurs’ offense as the playoffs have gone along – his passing, post play, and three-point range make him both a matchup nightmare and an excellent facilitator of offense.
Regular Season Series Results
San Antonio 1, Miami 1
Odds (TeamRankings)
TeamRankings’ models overwhelmingly favor the Spurs, with each San Antonio winning outcome more probable than the most probable Miami outcome. I doubt the series will be this lopsided, but be careful not to simply disregard the graph because of conventional opinions – TeamRankings’ projections have correctly picked the winner of 11 of the 14 playoff series so far.
Keys For Each Team
San Antonio: Can they limit their turnovers and prevent Miami from getting into transition? Can Kawhi Leonard play well enough against LeBron to warrant consistent single coverage? Who will provide the offensive spark that Danny Green set off in last year’s matchup?
Miami: Can non-big 3 members provide enough offense? Will Miami’s ball-rushing, double teaming defensive scheme be torn apart by San Antonio’s ball movement offense? Can Dwyane Wade play up to his reputation?
Prediction
We already know how Gregg Popovich likes to play LeBron and Wade – force jumpshots. However, in last year’s matchup, LeBron his enough from the outside to bring the trophy to Miami. Will Pop change his approach? Either way, the bottom line is Miami is just as good as the team that won the Finals last year, but San Antonio’s gotten better. Depth, shooting, coaching, and a defensive edge will be enough to get the Spurs their revenge, and perhaps give Duncan, Popovich, and Ginobili chances to retire on top.
San Antonio in 6
by Derek Reifer, Northwestern University
All You Need to Know About the Conference Finals
Well, we’re here. After a very exciting first couple rounds of the playoffs, the Conference Finals have arrived. This season, the NBA again showed that there is little parity in its ranks, and multiple seven-game series usually weed out potential upsets. Accordingly, in both conferences, the only teams remaining are seeds 1 and 2. Both of these matchups, though, are sure to be classics. Let’s take a closer look:
San Antonio (1) vs. Oklahoma City (2)
Considered by many to be the West’s two true heavyweights, the Spurs and Thunder meet in the Western Conference Finals for the second time in three years. Where the Thunder won that matchup, they were not present last season when the Spurs swept the Grizzlies out of this round to advance to the Finals themselves. This year’s series will be must-see TV.
Last Round
San Antonio: Won in 5 (TeamRankings’ most likely outcome: win in 5, CornerThree prediction: win in 7)
Oklahoma City: Won in 6 (most likely outcome: win in 7, prediction: lose in 6)
Key Stats
Overall ranking (TeamRankings): San Antonio 1st, Oklahoma City 2nd
Last 10 games ranking (TeamRankings): San Antonio 1st, Oklahoma City 2nd
Shooting efficiency (TeamRankings): San Antonio 2nd offensive, Oklahoma City 4th defensive
Free throws made per game (TeamRankings): San Antonio 4th defensive, Oklahoma City 5th offensive
Effective field goal percentage (TeamRankings): San Antonio 4th defensive, Oklahoma City 7th offensive
Starting Lineups
Spurs:
| Pos | Player ▴ | CornerThree WAR ranking | ESPN WAR ranking |
| PG | Tony Parker | 157th | 51st |
| SG | Danny Green | 60th | 63rd |
| SF | Kawhi Leonard | 24th | 66th |
| PF | Tim Duncan | 23rd | 17th |
| C | Tiago Splitter | 187th | 87th |
Thunder:
| Pos | Player ▴ | CornerThree WAR ranking | ESPN WAR ranking |
| PG | Russell Westbrook | 53rd | 59th |
| SG | Thabo Sefolosha | 97th | 111th |
| SF | Kevin Durant | 1st | 2nd |
| PF | Serge Ibaka | 26th | 15th |
| C | Kendrick Perkins | 476th | 415th |
Matchup Advantages
PG: Thunder (Westbrook)
SG: Spurs (Green)
SF: Thunder (Durant)
PF: No clear favorite
C: Spurs (Splitter)
Bench: Spurs
Coach: Spurs (Popovich)
Regular Season Series Results
Oklahoma City 4, San Antonio 0
The Thunder swept the Spurs impressively this regular season, but don’t put too much weight on these games: after being swept by the Nets in the regular season, the Heat went on to win four out of five against them last round. Both the Spurs and Heat are notoriously for taking the regular season slowly.
Odds (TeamRankings)
TeamRankings’ models clearly favor the Spurs here: San Antonio in 7, 6, and 5 are all more likely than the most probably OKC outcome.
Keys For Each Team
San Antonio: Can Kawhi Leonard, a defensive stalwart, slow down Kevin Durant without constant double teams? Can Tony Parker stay in front of Russell Westbrook? Can Tim Duncan get the shots he wants against tough post defenders in Serge Ibaka and Nick Collison?
Oklahoma City: Can secondary offensive contributors like Reggie Jackson and Ibaka make enough of an impact? Can they avoid stagnant offense late in games? Can they keep all of San Antonio’s shooters in check while denying Parker penetration? Will Scott Brooks utilize Collison and Steven Adams more, as opposed to the dreadful Perkins, as he did last round?
Prediction
Both of these squads, after looking surprisingly shaky in round one (both fell behind in their series before winning in seven games), are coming off very impressive wins against worthy teams in round two. The teams know each other well, but after a long enough series, better coaching, more consistency, and a powerful home-court advantage will send the Spurs back to the Finals.
San Antonio in 7
Indiana (1) vs. Miami (2)
After a very scary start to these playoffs, the Pacers are back on track and appear ready to compete in a rematch of last year’s seven-game Eastern Conference Finals. LeBron vs. George. Wade vs. Stephenson. Bosh vs. Hibbert. This series will be both physical and emotional, and will test both the ability and the resolve of both teams.
Last Round
Indiana: Won in 6 (most likely outcome: win in 7, prediction: lose in 6)
Miami: Won in 5 (most likely outcome: win in 5, prediction: win in 6)
Key Stats
Overall ranking: Miami 5th, Indiana 10th
Last 10 games ranking: Miami 4th, Indiana 7th
Assist-turnover ratio (TeamRankings): Miami 1st defensive, Indiana 26th offensive
Effective field goal percentage: Indiana 1st defensive, Miami 1st offensive
Rebounds per game (TeamRankings): Indiana 11th, Miami 30th
Starting Lineups
Pacers:
| Pos | Player ▴ | CornerThree WAR ranking | ESPN WAR ranking |
| PG | George Hill | 121st | 43rd |
| SG | Lance Stephenson | 72nd | 75th |
| SF | Paul George | 14th | 29th |
| PF | David West | 77th | 31st |
| C | Roy Hibbert | 96th | 40th |
Heat:
| Pos | Player ▴ | CornerThree WAR ranking | ESPN WAR ranking |
| PG | Mario Chalmers | 101st | 76th |
| SG | Dwyane Wade | 30th | 85th |
| SF | LeBron James | 4th | 1st |
| PF | Udonis Haslem | 447th | 329th |
| C | Chris Bosh | 64th | 22nd |
Matchup Advantages
PG: No clear favorite
SG: No clear favorite
SF: Heat (James)
PF: Pacers (West)
C: Heat (Bosh)
Bench: Heat
Coach: No clear favorite
Regular Season Series Results
Indiana 2, Miami 2
The Pacers and Heat showed their matchup equality during the regular season this year, with the home team winning every game. The scoring differential over the four games combined was just +8 in favor of Miami.
Odds
There looks to be a good chance of this series going to seven games, but if it doesn’t, these models definitely prefer Miami. According to Bayes’ Theorem of conditional probability, if the series doesn’t make it to seven games, the Heat’s chances of winning go up from 60.9% to 66%.
Keys For Each Team
Miami: Can they overcome their size and rebounding deficiencies with enough fastbreak points and outside shooting? Can Chris Bosh consistently keep Roy Hibbert far enough outside the paint? How big of a factor will Dwyane Wade be?
Indiana: Can Paul George play up to LeBron’s level? Will Hibbert find any sort of consistency and follow up last year’s huge performance in this matchup? Can the Pacers find enough offense to keep up with the Heat?
Prediction
Indiana will be plenty motivated, and won’t lay down in this series. With some minor changes, these rosters look almost identical to how they looked last year at thistime, and with luck, this time around will be just as enthralling. However, with Wade looking healthier and the Pacers definitely shakier, Miami will have enough firepower to hold off Indiana just enough to prevent a trip back to Indy for game seven.
Miami in 6
by Derek Reifer, Northwestern University
Who/When/Why: Second Round
We have just witnessed one of the greatest first rounds in NBA Playoff history: Game 7s, overtimes; four-point plays. Can the second round top it? Here’s what the stats say about each of the matchups:
San Antonio (1) vs. Portland (5)
Both of these teams were surprising in the first round: the Spurs in their difficulty finally advancing and the Blazers in their seeming ease. It’s the old guard vs. the new guard in a fast-paced, exciting matchup that will include lots of outside shooting.
Last Round
San Antonio: Won in 7 (TeamRankings probability of outcome: 17.8 %, CornerThree prediction: win in 4)
Portland: Won in 6 (Probability of outcome: 15.9%, prediction: lose in 7)
Key Stats
Overall ranking (TeamRankings): San Antonio 1st, Portland 4th
Last 10 games ranking (TeamRankings): Portland 1st, San Antonio 10th
Shooting efficiency (TeamRankings): San Antonio 2nd offensive, Portland 5th defensive
Total rebounds per game (TeamRankings): Portland 4th offensive, San Antonio 20th defensive
Starting Lineups
Spurs:
| Pos | Player ▴ | CornerThree WAR ranking | ESPN WAR ranking |
| PG | Tony Parker | 157th | 51st |
| SG | Danny Green | 60th | 63rd |
| SF | Kawhi Leonard | 24th | 66th |
| PF | Tim Duncan | 23rd | 17th |
| C | Tiago Splitter | 187th | 87th |
Trail Blazers:
| Pos | Player ▴ | CornerThree WAR ranking | ESPN WAR ranking |
| PG | Damian Lillard | 62nd | 30th |
| SG | Wesley Matthews | 46th | 77th |
| SF | Nicolas Batum | 50th | 86th |
| PF | LaMarcus Aldridge | 19th | 10th |
| C | Robin Lopez | 95th | 27th |
Matchup Advantages
PG: Trail Blazers (Lillard)
SG: No clear favorite
SF: Spurs (Batum)
PF: Trail Blazers (Aldridge)
C: Trail Blazers (Lopez)
Bench: Spurs
Coach: Spurs (Popovich)
Regular Season Series Results
San Antonio 2, Portland 2
Odds (TeamRankings)
Keys For Each Team
Portland: Can Lillard keep up with Tony Parker’s quickness when on defense, both on-ball and off, while still being himself on offense? Can LaMarcus Aldridge win his matchup against a defensive legend at his position?
San Antonio: Can they keep Portland off the glass? Can they find a way to slow down the red-hot Lillard while still keeping Aldridge and the perimeter shooters in check?
Prediction
The data here is interesting: while the Blazers have the advantage at most of the starting positions (though likely partially due to more minutes played), the Spurs have the predictive models at their backs. Though Portland has looked excellent lately, I’m going to go with the coaching, experience, and depth to pull through, despite close games and a couple of big performances from the Blazers’ big two.
San Antonio in 7
Oklahoma City (2) vs. Los Angeles (3)
Both squads had tougher times than anticipated shutting down their confident opponents in round 1, but now they’re in for perhaps the biggest showdown of the second round. With top-flight players galore on both teams, this series has all the makings of a classic.
Last Round
Oklahoma City: Won in 7 (Probability of outcome: 18.6 %, prediction: win in 6)
Los Angeles: Won in 7 (Probability of outcome: 19.5%, prediction: win in 6)
Key Stats
Overall ranking: Oklahoma City 2nd, Los Angeles 3rd
Last 10 games ranking: Los Angeles 5th, Oklahoma City 9th
Free throws made per game (TeamRankings): Oklahoma City 5th offensive, Los Angeles 21st defensive
Fast break points per game (TeamRankings): Los Angeles 2nd offensive, Oklahoma City 11th defensive
Starting Lineups
Thunder:
| Pos | Player ▴ | CornerThree WAR ranking | ESPN WAR ranking |
| PG | Russell Westbrook | 53rd | 59th |
| SG | Caron Butler | 189th | 418th |
| SF | Kevin Durant | 1st | 2nd |
| PF | Serge Ibaka | 26th | 15th |
| C | Kendrick Perkins | 476th | 415th |
Clippers:
| Pos | Player ▴ | CornerThree WAR ranking | ESPN WAR ranking |
| PG | Chris Paul | 3rd | 6th |
| SG | JJ Redick | 183rd | 167th |
| SF | Matt Barnes | 175th | 69th |
| PF | Blake Griffin | 22nd | 7th |
| C | DeAndre Jordan | 8th | 8th |
Matchup Advantages
PG: Clippers (Paul)
SG: Clippers (Redick)
SF: Thunder (Durant)
PF: Clippers (Griffin)
C: Clippers (Jordan)
Bench: Clippers
Coach: Clippers (Rivers)
Regular Season Series Results
Oklahoma City 2, Los Angeles 2
Odds
Keys For Each Team
Oklahoma City: Can they get enough scoring from players 3-12 to supplement their two superstars? Can their bench keep pace with the Clippers’ Crawford, Collison, and co.? Can Ibaka play up to his competition in Griffin?
Los Angeles: Is Paul healthy enough to stay in front of the uber-fast Westbrook for a whole series? Can Matt Barnes check KD without needing a double on every possession? Can DeAndre Jordan defend the rim against some of the league’s most explosive finishers?
Prediction
This is a battle of heavyweights on a finals-type scale, with both teams in the top three of the league’s overall rankings. Chris Paul is hungry to save his playoff reputation, but he has health questions after last series. However, he’ll be able to run the offense well enough that the Clippers’ superior frontcourt and depth will continue to wear down the Thunder to the point of elimination.
Los Angeles in 6
Indiana (1) vs. Washington (5)
The Pacers limp into round 2 against a team that blew through its initial matchup with ease. However, Indiana has all of the tools to make this series an excellent one, and the absence of a “stretch 5” in Washington should allow Roy Hibbert to show again why he was an All-Star this season.
Last Round
Indiana: Won in 7 (Probability of outcome: 18.1 %, prediction: win in 6)
Washington: Won in 5 (Probability of outcome: 8.2%, prediction: loss in 7)
Key Stats
Overall ranking: Indiana 10th, Washington 14th
Last 10 games ranking: Washington 2nd, Indiana 13th
Effective field goal percentage (TeamRankings): Indiana 1st defensive, Washington 13th offensive
Three point percentage (TeamRankings): Indiana 3rd defensive, Washington 5th offensive
Starting Lineups
Pacers:
| Pos | Player ▴ | CornerThree WAR ranking | ESPN WAR ranking |
| PG | George Hill | 121st | 43rd |
| SG | Lance Stephenson | 72nd | 75th |
| SF | Paul George | 14th | 29th |
| PF | David West | 77th | 31st |
| C | Roy Hibbert | 96th | 40th |
Wizards:
| Pos | Player ▴ | CornerThree WAR ranking | ESPN WAR ranking |
| PG | John Wall | 10th | 34th |
| SG | Bradley Beal | 58th | 139th |
| SF | Trevor Ariza | 34th | 79th |
| PF | Nene Hilario | 123rd | 83rd |
| C | Marcin Gortat | 69th | 21st |
Matchup Advantages
PG: Wizards (Wall)
SG: No clear favorite
SF: Pacers (George)
PF: Pacers (West)
C: Wizards (Gortat)
Bench: No clear favorite
Coach: Pacers (Vogel)
Regular Season Series Results
Indiana 2, Washington 1
Odds
Keys For Each Team
Indiana: Can this team forget its chemistry issues and fully get back to basketball? Will Roy Hibbert’s return to the paint give him a reenergizing? Can they slow down Wall and Beal in transition?
Washington: How good of a job will Trevor Ariza do on the oft-enigmatic Paul George? Can Nene bring the same physicality he did to Joakim Noah to David West?
Prediction
Washington has the young legs and the confidence factor, while the Pacers have been the better team over the full course of the season. However, despite much of the year-long data favoring Indiana, the Wizards’ long rest period and the superstellar play of John Wall on both sides of the ball will define this series in an upset.
Washington in 6
Miami (2) vs. Brooklyn (6)
This could be a classic matchup – Pierce and KG vs. LeBron and Wade in the playoffs for perhaps the final time. Brooklyn has gotten the better of Miami in their head-to-heads, while Miami has been much more consistent all season long. Let’s take a look at the data:
Last Round
Miami: Won in 4 (Probability of outcome: 14.8 %, prediction: win in 5)
Brooklyn: Won in 7 (Probability of outcome: 9.3%, prediction: loss in 7)
Key Stats
Overall ranking: Miami 6th, Brooklyn 15th
Last 10 games ranking: Miami 6th, Brooklyn 16th
Assist-turnover ratio (TeamRankings): Miami 1st defensive, Brooklyn 18th offensive
Offensive rebound percentage (TeamRankings): Miami 24th defensive, Brooklyn 27th offensive
Starting Lineups
Heat:
| Pos | Player ▴ | CornerThree WAR ranking | ESPN WAR ranking |
| PG | Mario Chalmers | 101st | 76th |
| SG | Dwyane Wade | 30th | 85th |
| SF | LeBron James | 4th | 1st |
| PF | Udonis Haslem | 447th | 329th |
| C | Chris Bosh | 64th | 22nd |
Nets:
| Pos | Player ▴ | CornerThree WAR ranking | ESPN WAR ranking |
| PG | Deron Williams | 83rd | 57th |
| SG | Shaun Livingston | 84th | 121st |
| SF | Joe Johnson | 111th | 47th |
| PF | Paul Pierce | 102nd | 61st |
| C | Kevin Garnett | 138th | 97th |
Matchup Advantages
PG: Nets (Williams)
SG: Heat (Wade)
SF: Heat (James)
PF: Nets (Pierce)
C: Heat (Bosh)
Bench: Heat
Coach: Heat (Spoelstra)
Regular Season Series Results
Brooklyn 4, Miami 0
Odds
Keys For Each Team
Miami: Can the Heat prove that their getting swept by Brooklyn this season was a fluke? How big of a factor will Dwyane Wade be? Can they use their speed to beat slower Brooklyn by forcing turnovers and running in transition? Will Ray Allen have a big series against his famous former teammates?
Brooklyn: Are the well-aged Nets tired from their seven-game first round series? Can Pierce and Garnett evoke whatever power they do have that seems to gives LeBron troubles? Can they avoid giving up big runs (especially when playing in Miami)?
Prediction
Despite Brooklyn’s success this season against Miami, they’re coming off a grueling seven game series against Toronto, whereas the Heat walked over the Bobcats and haven’t played for an entire week. The Heat will be rested, prepared, and motivated enough to defeat the Nets, despite a couple of hiccups.
Miami in 6
by Derek Reifer, Northwestern University
A Quick Who, When, and Why for the First Round in the East
Indiana (1) vs. Atlanta (8)
This is a matchup the NBA probably wasn’t looking forward to – the fading Pacers against one of the worst teams in playoff history in the Hawks. Can Indiana get back on track and get motivated for the postseason? This is a rematch of last year’s first round series.
Key Stats
Overall ranking (TeamRankings): Indiana 9th, Atlanta 20th
Last 10 games ranking (TeamRankings): Atlanta 12th, Indiana 23rd
Effective field goal percentage (TeamRankings): Indiana 1st defensive, Atlanta 9th offensive
Assists per game (TeamRankings): Indiana 1st defensive, Atlanta 2nd offensive
Key Players
Paul George (14th CornerThree WAR, 29th ESPN WAR) vs. Paul Millsap (21st CornerThree, 49th ESPN)
Regular Season Series Results
Indiana 2, Atlanta 2
Odds (TeamRankings)
Prediction
Under the leadership of the steady Frank Vogel, the Pacers will respond to urgency after falling behind in the series, and win out on their way to round two.
Indiana in 6
Miami (2) vs. Charlotte (7)
The ‘Cats are back in the playoffs, but they’ll have a tough task ahead of them in the three-time defending Eastern Conference champion Heat. With Big Al Jefferson in the middle, can they put enough pressure on Miami’s small lineups to make things interesting? Charlotte has ended the season strong, while Miami has had a rough go of it in March and April.
Key Stats
Overall ranking: Miami 7th, Charlotte 17th
Last 10 games ranking: Charlotte 8th, Miami 24th
Assist-turnover ratio (TeamRankings): Miami 1st defensive, Charlotte 2nd offensive
Points in the paint per game (TeamRankings): Miami 10th defensive, Charlotte 21rd offensive
Key Players
LeBron James (4th CornerThree WAR, 1st ESPN WAR) vs. Al Jefferson (16th CornerThree, 52nd ESPN)
Regular Season Series Results
Miami 4, Charlotte 0
Odds
Prediction
As they did last year against an inferior Bucks squad, Miami will blow through the competition in round one, though Charlotte will steal game 3 in Carolina.
Miami in 5
Toronto (3) vs. Brooklyn (7)
With playoff legends Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett, alongside established veterans Deron Williams and Joe Johnson, Brooklyn takes its intriguing lineups into a changing-of-the-guard matchup with Toronto, who brings youth and hunger to this battle.
Key Stats
Overall ranking: Toronto 12th, Brooklyn 16th
Last 10 games ranking: Toronto 14th, Brooklyn 22nd
Ranking in Toronto (TeamRankings): Toronto 14th home, Brooklyn 20th away
Ranking in Brooklyn (TeamRankings): Toronto 9th away, Brooklyn 10th home
Key Players
Kyle Lowry (13th CornerThree WAR, 14th ESPN WAR) vs. Deron Williams (83rd CornerThree, 57th ESPN)
Regular Season Series Results
Toronto 2, Brooklyn 2
Odds
Prediction
Two of the most underrated teams in the playoffs face off. Brooklyn’s experience, alongside Jason Kidd’s great coaching, will push this series to the limit, but with the league’s fourth-best point guard by both WAR ratings in Kyle Lowry next to hungry first-time All-Star DeMar DeRozan, and superior ability to play on the road, the Raptors will make Drake happier than Jay-Z and advance past the Nets.
Toronto in 7
Chicago (4) vs. Washington (5)
John Wall and Bradley Beal lead one of the league’s most explosive backcourts and a run-and-gun, three-point shooting offense for the Wizards against Tom Thibodeau’s grind it out defense for the Bulls in a clash of styles that will be more exciting than its billing.
Key Stats
Overall ranking: Chicago 13th, Washington 15th
Last 10 games ranking: Chicago 4th, Washington 13th
Three point percentage (TeamRankings): Washington 5th offensive, Chicago 8th defensive
Shooting efficiency (TeamRankings): Washington 14th defensive, Chicago 28th offensive
Key Players
John Wall (10th CornerThree WAR, 34th ESPN WAR) vs. Joakim Noah (11th CornerThree, 11th ESPN)
Regular Season Series Results
Washington 2, Chicago 1
Odds
Prediction
John Wall and the Wizards are ready for the big time, but they’ll have to prove it against one of the league’s best team defenses. Chicago will struggle to score, and Washington will jump ahead in this series despite its beginning at the United Center. However, as the series progresses, Tom Thibodeau will make the necessary adjustments to neutralize the Wizards’ deadly backcourt, and put the cap on a very exciting series.
Chicago in 7
Find the corresponding Western Conference breakdown here.
by Derek Reifer, Northwestern University
Is Parity in Sports Really Better?
It has been said recently that the NBA has never been stronger than it is right now, and it really is true. The NBA is all over the sports news, currently dominating the news cycle on ESPN, getting more airtime than America’s pastime, the MLB. Franchise values are skyrocketing and the league recently turned down a prospective owner who wanted to pay a billion dollars for the Kings, over $300 million more than they was valued at before the bidding war began. The league has two extremely marketable superstars in Kevin Durant and LeBron James, who by all accounts are not only phenomenal basketball players, but also good citizens.
The NBA is an interesting test case because of the idea of parity in sports. With the NBA, you can pick 8 teams at the beginning of the season and you will have a 90% chance of getting the correct champion. Don’t believe me? Check this out.
